Social algorithms are black boxes, but their logic is clear - capture attention, keep people scrolling, feed them more of what works. 

For creators and companies, this is both intoxicating + dangerous.

The temptation is the possibility that with one clever hook // perfectly timed upload, the algorithm will elevate you above millions of others. 

Who wouldn’t want that?

You, as it turns out. 

Or at least, you shouldn’t. 

Chasing virality is not the same as building signal. 

Virality is noise amplified: it comes quickly, often at random, and it rarely ever compounds. 

Signal is built through coherence, consistency, and credibility. 

It’s the difference between short-term arbitrage and durable competitive advantage.

TikTok’s discovery engine does not (and will not ever) prioritize either authority or expertise; it prioritizes engagement metrics. YouTube’s recommendation system leans toward time spent and retention. These incentives shape behavior: creators experiment with formats and hooks not to better communicate their ideas but to game the algorithm.

It’s not unlike financial markets: high-frequency traders profit by milliseconds of information arbitrage. They may generate profits, but they don’t provide liquidity in a way that strengthens the system long term. 

Virality is a trade, not an investment.

Platforms understand this. It’s why YouTube invests in subscription bundles like Premium, why TikTok experiments with e-commerce, why Meta continues to push creators toward monetization programs.

They need sustainability.

Churn is the enemy of platforms as much as creators. 

A viral moment feels like validation. One video crosses a million views, one post gets reshared by an influential account, one podcast clip breaks through. The problem is that the audience that arrives is not necessarily the audience you want. A million people may click, but how many will care tomorrow? More importantly, how many will recognize you as the source of something worth returning to?

Close to zero. 

Culture is littered with one-hit wonders in music and media. The economics are the same. A single viral track brings a burst of royalties but no touring base, no catalog value. Meanwhile, an artist with steady but modest growth accumulates a loyal audience that sustains a career for decades. 

The difference is signal. AKA: compounding interest.

Signal emerges when an audience comes to you for a consistent lens on the world. 

Stratechery isn’t viral, but it is a signal. The New York Times doesn’t need to go viral every day because its authority compounds. A Substack writer who builds an engaged base of 10,000 readers has more leverage than a TikTok creator with ten times that number but no predictable engagement.

Signal creates optionality. With signal, you can launch new products, shift formats, or even pivot platforms without starting from zero. Virality, by contrast, ties you to the whims of distribution systems you don’t control.

TikTok now emphasizes search functionality and user profiles, not just the For You Page. YouTube encourages creators to build channels, not just clips. Even X, after years of chaos, is experimenting with subscriptions that tether creators more closely to their followers.

Why? 

Because platforms know that signal creates stickiness. Users who follow people they trust stay longer and are harder to poach. Platforms are recognizing what creators ignore: signal sustains distribution. Identity sustains monetization.

For creators and businesses, the lesson is clear: don’t mistake algorithmic reach for durable demand. An algorithm can introduce you, but only your signal keeps people around.

View counts, follower growth, engagement rates etc provide the illusion of precision.

But metrics optimized for virality both measure and create volatility, not value. A spike in impressions might look good in a dashboard, but if it doesn’t correlate with conversions, revenue, or reputation, it’s dead air. 

Marketers learned this lesson during the Facebook “pivot to video.” Publishers chased inflated video metrics, restructured their operations, and then collapsed when the numbers turned out to be misleading. The pivot was built on noise. Signal was ignored.

The same dynamic: Clubhouse’s rise and fall, Twitter Spaces’ hype cycle, Threads’ launch week spike. What matters isn’t the burst, it’s the slope of sustained engagement. Metrics that capture retention, repeat visits, or direct conversions are harder to celebrate in screenshots, but they tell you far more about the health of a business or a brand.

Building signal is a discipline.

You choose - over, and over again - consistency over novelty, clarity over clickbait, and relationships over reach. Yes, even if that means accepting slower growth in the short term for stronger foundations in the long term.

For years, Amazon tolerated low margins in order to deliver reliability and scale. That trust became the moat that supported AWS, Prime, and the marketplace model. Trust is a form of signal. It doesn’t trend on social platforms, but it compounds in market value.

For individuals, the same logic applies. A writer who produces thoughtful work week after week builds trust with readers. A podcaster who shows up reliably creates a habit. Over time, these habits are stronger than any algorithmic push.

Every hour spent trying to reverse-engineer the algorithm is an hour not spent sharpening your point of view. 

Every time you stretch your brand to match a trend, you dilute your identity. Chasing virality actively erodes signal. 

Which explains why some of the most durable creators and companies intentionally ignore trends. They may use platforms tactically, but their strategy is anchored elsewhere. Their websites, email lists, and direct communities serve as reservoirs of signal immune to algorithmic swings. They measure success in depth, not breadth.\

Investors talk about product-market fit as the inflection point where growth accelerates. But what sustains growth after that? Endless hacks are a game of diminishing return. It’s all brand, culture, and trust. In other words, signal.

If virality is being in the right place at the right time, signal is building something that endures across time. Signal compounds. Virality decays.

The companies and creators who win long term - or at least survive, which equates to largely the same thing - are those who accept virality when it comes but don’t not depend on it. They build a base of meaning that persists after the noise fades. 

They understand that the real game is resonance, and the reach is just the halftime show.

Virality is an accident. Signal is a discipline. You can’t build a future on accidents. But you can on signal. That’s the game worth playing.